In his monthly Oahu real estate market deep dive, presented exclusively to Locations agents, John Jacobson, Lead Research Analyst for Locations, shared in-depth data, insights and expectations for the market in Fall 2023, drawn from his decades of experience analyzing Oahu housing data. Below are our five key takeaways from John’s most recent market data presentation.
- Homes Market: Less Robust, but Normalizing. The first takeaway centers on the Oahu single-family homes market. John pointed out a softening or less-robust trend in the single-family market, which he says was to be expected as the market normalizes. This normalization is a natural progression following the rapid growth we experienced over the past few years. While the pace may be slowing down, it signifies a move toward a more balanced market.
- Condo Market: Moderating. Just like the homes market, the condo market is also moderating, or returning to more typical conditions. This adjustment brings about stability and opportunities for both buyers and sellers. The condo market is catching its breath after the robust activity of the past few years, a sign the market is stablizing.
- New Listings Low, Down 25% from Last Year. There are very few homes and condos available for sale, compared to previous periods. New listings have decreased by approximately 25% compared to the previous year. This scarcity in new listings can be attributed to various factors, including sellers waiting for better market conditions and homeowners who are reluctant to give up a lower mortgage rate if they were to sell their home and purchase a new property. Low numbers of new listings have contributed to the continued existence of a seller’s market, with competitive pressures still very much present.
- Sales: Down 30%, but the Gap in Sales Between This Year and Last is Shrinking. Sales activity has dipped by approximately 30%, which might sound alarming at first glance. However, John emphasized that it’s important to note that this decline was anticipated as we shift away from the frenetic pace of recent years. The good news? The gap between the number of sales last year and this year is shrinking, another indication of a more balanced market.
- Prices: Lower than 2022, but Flat-to-Rising in 2023. While prices have dropped slightly compared to the peak in 2022, John expects them to remain relatively flat or even experience a modest rise in 2023. This is welcome news for potential buyers, as it indicates a more sustainable market with fewer price fluctuations.
As we head into the final quarter of 2023, John expects the market to continue its natural transition toward more sustainable growth and stability. While sales may be down and prices have adjusted slightly, these shifts signify a maturing market.
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